“Let’s wait until the market comes back” is a financial claim. This shows the seller exactly how fast the market would have to move to make it true.
Sometimes waiting is the right call. Sometimes it’s a seller’s mind running ahead of their math. The difference is worth knowing before either of you commits to a plan.
This models four wait periods against three market outlooks, and ends with the line that settles most of these conversations: the annual appreciation rate at which waiting exactly breaks even.
Step 1
Today’s situation
From your CMA or recent comps.
Many owners locked below 4% before 2022.
Step 2
Monthly carrying costs
1% of value per year ÷ 12 is a common default.
Whatever keeps it show-ready.
Step 3
If sold now
Commissions are negotiable and vary. Enter what applies in this transaction.
What the money could earn in savings or T-bills.
Step 4
Price outlook
Presets are −2% / 0% / +3.5%. Override with your own local forecast.
| What waiting looks like | Wait 3 mo | Wait 6 mo | Wait 12 mo | Wait 18 mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Costs of waiting | ||||
| Total carrying costs | ||||
| Opportunity cost on proceeds | ||||
| What waiting might gain | ||||
| Home value change | ||||
| Principal paid down | ||||
| Net outcome of waiting | ||||
| Break-even appreciation rate — prices must rise this much per year to justify waiting | ||||
Best financial choice
Estimates for conversation only — not financial, tax, or investment advice. Carrying costs assume the mortgage interest portion stays roughly level during the wait, which holds within about $100 per month on typical loans over 18 months. Opportunity cost uses today’s net proceeds as the basis. Capital gains tax effects are not included and may apply where gains exceed the personal residence exclusion. Sellers should confirm tax questions with a CPA.
How to use this in a seller conversation
Listen before you calculate
When a seller says “let’s wait,” they are usually saying one of three different things:
- I’m scared. The decision feels heavy and they want more time.
- I think prices will recover. A genuine belief about the market.
- I have a date. A school year, a retirement, a lease, a family event.
Only the second one is a math problem. Run the numbers on the first and you’ll look like you weren’t listening. Run them on the third and you’ll be arguing with a calendar.
Run their outlook first, not yours
If the seller believes prices are rising, set the toggle to Prices rise before anything else. Show them the math under their own assumption.
Most of the time the carrying costs still win — and a seller watching their own best case fail is far more persuasive than a seller being told they’re wrong.
The break-even line is the whole conversation
Everything above it is setup. When the break-even rate appears, ask one plain question:
“Looking at our local comps and recent sales — do you think this house will gain that much, every year, for the next year?”
Then stop. Most sellers, asked plainly, won’t say yes. And the honest answer is theirs, not yours — which is exactly why it holds.
Honor the cases where the math says wait. In a genuinely appreciating market with a seller whose carrying costs are low, waiting sometimes wins. The tool will say so. Don’t argue with it. The seller who hears you say “in your case the math actually supports waiting” is the seller who trusts you permanently — and who lists with you when they’re ready.
Pair it with the price conversation
These are companion tools. This one quantifies waiting. If the seller agrees to list but is reluctant on price, the Listing Price Reduction Impact Calculator quantifies the right adjustment. Both leave the decision where it belongs — with the seller.
What the four lines actually mean
Carrying costs are the real money leaving the seller’s account every month the house doesn’t sell — taxes, insurance, utilities, HOA, upkeep, and the interest portion of the mortgage payment. This is almost always the largest line, and the one sellers have never added up.
Opportunity cost is what the net proceeds could be earning if the sale happened today. Conservative by design — savings and T-bill rates, not market returns.
Home value change is the line sellers focus on exclusively. Showing it as one of four is the point of the exercise.
Principal paid down is real equity built during the wait. It’s a genuine credit, and it’s smaller than most sellers expect, because early payments are mostly interest.
The break-even rate is solved exactly rather than approximated: it’s the annual appreciation at which those four lines net to zero.
Free resource from Solo Agent Academy™ — share it freely with attribution.